Hey all, this blog on Harry Potter & the magical supply chain is based on the book of "Deadly hallows", buckle up for the Hogwarts express!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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To ensure the success of the launch, the publishers did some smart things. They were telling customers to pre-book. The market forecast was thus reasonably reliable and it was possible to supply enough copies of the book. They reduced stockouts.
On sale, the distributors were pre-aligned. In the preparation of the project, they were interested early on. They arranged for more counters and called the staff early for the book to a sticker.
Not all things are pre-bookable. But the concept is to get an estimation from manufacturers, salespeople, dealers, from the ground up. After a sample of the item is shared with the suppliers, salespeople, distributors, the estimation can be given.
The bottom-up demand estimation is usually under-called. This is because of the assumption that a promise is the demand estimate and it is easier to under-call and then over-deliver the demand estimate.
The demand is
over-called occasionally. This is in view of 'hoard' stocks where it is
expected that stocks will be restricted.
One way to solve this is to receive a demand forecast from salespeople, manufacturers, etc. Distributors can be described as the performance of a sales individual as coming between + -20% of the demand estimation [it can be any fair tolerance]. It will compensate sales-persons or dealers whose real profits fall below this tolerance.
At launch, it is necessary to have ample supplies, so ads, media are all organized to be at full weights at launch. A customer who has seen the TV commercial, but does not see the item at the shop, would be very disappointed. And there are high risks that she will not come back for the piece.
Around the same time,
obtaining surplus supplies around the launch is a tragedy. I witnessed the bombing
of product releases and lost track of the number of times I had to ruin goods
when we overestimated demand and were saddled with a residual inventory.
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